Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
